How the Stock Market Could React if Trump or Hillary Wins

Whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump wins the U.S. election this November, the question for investors is how that victory might affect the stock market.

If Clinton wins, will health care companies like Aetna prosper? If Trump wins, will oil companies like Exxon and Shell, surge?

Historically, the presidential election has had little long-term impact on the U.S. stock market. “The market responds more to Fed policy and economic conditions more than who is president,” said Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist with CRFA.

Stovall looked at how the stock market has fared under past U.S. Presidents. Overall, markets from 1945 to 2016 gained 9.7% under Democrat presidents and 6.7% under Republican presidents, according to his findings. But it’s hard to say whether those gains were tied directly to the person sitting in the Oval Office.

Nonetheless, decisions the president makes can have lasting impacts on certain industries, which could have an impact on market value for publicly traded companies in those industries.

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MagnifyMoney reached out to a handful of experts to find out how the market might look the day after Election Day (and beyond).

Here are their predictions:

If Trump wins …

Donald Trump

Stovall noted there’s a lot of concern that a Trump victory would send the market into a nosedive. But any dip in the market would eventually level out. “If it falls, it won’t be for too long,” Stovall says.

Trump has vowed to cut regulations across many industries and let markets rule, which could lift markets if he is elected, says Jeff Auxier, president and CEO of Lake Oswego, Ore.-based Auxier Asset Management. “The perception is he would cut taxes and regulations,” he says.

For example, Trump has said that he will allow insurance companies to buy insurance across state lines, which could boost their business.

The insurance industry would particularly benefit from Trump’s insistence on deregulation, Auxier suggests. Lately, the U.S. government has worked to block a pair of potentially lucrative insurance mergers — marriages between Anthem-Cigna and Aetna-Humana. All signs point to less federal regulation under a Trump presidency.

Most large financial service companies favor a Trump triumph. “Banks favor less regulation,” Stovall says. Under a Clinton administration, some of the mega banks such as Bank of America and Citigroup would likely face pressure to shrink. In other words, they may be forced to sell off businesses and reduce total assets. If regulations under Trump declined, Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) and Discover Financial Services (DFS) stand to gain.

Another industry that might celebrate a Trump victory is construction and engineering.

“Any companies associated with building roads and bridges like engineering firms will benefit,” Auxier says. Some specific companies that could see revenues rise include Granite Construction (GVA) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW), the paint company. Stovall says these companies could do well under Clinton as well, who has said she would spike investment in infrastructure.

Large oil and energy companies would welcome a Trump victory since they prefer less regulation, a hallmark of the Republican agenda, Stovall adds.

For-profit colleges have been battered by regulations and would bounce back in a Trump presidency, Auxier suggests. Under Trump, companies such as Apollo Education Group and Lincoln Tech could “come back from the dead,” he says.

If Clinton wins …

Hillary Clinton

If Clinton wins the election, renewable stocks would prosper and many health care stocks could do well. On the downside, biotech and retail stocks might falter.

Many retail stores and restaurants are concerned about a Clinton election, Stovall says. “Retail is worried about a $15 an hour minimum wage,” Stovall says, which Clinton has supported.

On health care, don’t expect much difference if Clinton is elected. “[A Clinton victory] is basically a continuation of the Obama administration,” Stovall says. “She represents more of the center of the two candidates and that would make for less uncertainty. Wall Street doesn’t like uncertainty.”

Despite that fact that Aetna cut back its Affordable Health Care coverage in 11 states, and Humana and UnitedHealthCare also reduced coverage, the Obama administration has noted that millions of people still maintain their health plans. Health care companies can opt out of offering coverage and then return, so it’s not necessarily a permanent trend.

Under a Clinton administration, large managed health care firms, HCA Holdings (HCA), Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC), and Molina Healthcare (MOH) could prosper as more companies drop out of the marketplace, creating less competition.

But Stovall also notes that Clinton has focused on capping the rising cost of drugs, which could trouble the pharmaceutical industry.

If Clinton wins, “biotech will shake in their boots,” Stovall adds. Clinton has stressed that controlling drug prices and avoiding massive price hikes is critical. She has said she will look to regulate and curtail pharmaceutical price increases, specifically highlighting the recent controversy over Mylan’s decision to drastically increase the price of EpiPens.

“Biotech and pharma companies would likely suffer from promised price caps. However, hospital management companies will prosper since we won’t be back to the old pattern of uninsured individuals using emergency rooms as their primary care facilities,” Stovall asserts.

While a Trump victory could likely be good news for oil stocks, a Clinton victory could send renewable energy stocks soaring.

“Democrats would be pushing for renewable energy and putting more restraints on energy,” Stovall says. Hillary Clinton has supported President Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which intends to set a national limit on carbon pollution, and she has stated that “the Obama plan is a major step forward to combat climate change.”

The post How the Stock Market Could React if Trump or Hillary Wins appeared first on MagnifyMoney.

Stockflare Review: User-Friendly Tool to Analyze Stock Performance for Free

 stock market numbers and graphLet’s face it, analyzing stock performance on your own before making a purchase can be time-consuming. And for inexperienced investors, digging through market commentary and reports to make an investment decision can be downright intimidating.

Stockflare, a London-based startup, provides a research tool that organizes stock data in a way that almost anyone can easily digest. The site includes forecasts, stats, and analysis to help you make a well-informed decision about your stock trades. Based on the data collected, Stockflare also gives each stock a star rating from 1 to 5. In this post, we’re going to cover the Stockflare service and how you may be able to benefit from it. Read on to learn:

  • How Stockflare works
  • How Stockflare analyzes stock     
  • How much Stockflare costs
  • Pros and cons

How Stockflare Works

Stockflare gets most of the data it analyzes from Thomson Reuters. The site provides performance review along with predictions on how a stock may perform in the future. It’s important to note that Stockflare is not a site that offers advice and recommendations. Instead, Stockflare is meant to be a wealth of information you can dive into for research purposes only before making decisions.  

You can’t buy stock via Stockflare at this time. However, Stockflare may add investment services in the future, which is something to look out for if you decide to use the platform. U.S. residents can connect existing brokerage accounts to Stockflare to make purchases and to monitor portfolio performance from within the dashboard.  

Stockflare currently supports connections with the following brokerage accounts:

If you live outside of the U.S., you can open an account and connect Stockflare with DriveWealth. Connecting any brokerage account with the platform is free and made possible through a partnership with Trading Ticket.

Stockflare Stock Analysis

You can quickly find stock to analyze on Stockflare by typing in a company name or ticker. If you’re on the hunt for new stock, you can explore companies under curated listings like “Boring Businesses,” “Great Gains,” and “Strong Buys.” You can also search by stock performance.

On each company page, the stocks are put through a series of tests to help you make investment decisions. We took a look at Johnson & Johnson as an example.

stockflare

For each company’s stock page (in this case Johnson & Johnson), there’s a review of the stock price, percentage change, and actual change. The website does not yet update in real time, so be mindful of this when using it for research.

On the top left of the page underneath the company name are the last time the information was updated and the stock rating.

The five tests that Stockflare puts each stock through to determine the rating include:

Profitability

The profitability test shows if the company you’re reviewing is, in fact, turning a profit. You can drill down further into the profitability test field to review the short-term earnings-per-share and earnings-per-profit forecast.

stockflare

Dividends

Stockflare will tell you whether or not a company pays out dividends and, if so, the dividend forecast and whether competitors also pay out dividends.

 

stockflare

Business growth forecast

The site shows the growth trend of the company compared to its top five fastest growing competitors.

stockflare

Stock value

Stockflare compares the price-to-earnings ratio versus its top five least expensive competitors.

stockflare

 

Stockbroker opinion

The final metric is the Wall Street recommendation on whether you should buy the stock.


stockflare

How Much Stockflare Costs, Registration, and Security

The Stockflare platform is free. You can take advantage of all analysis without paying a dime or even subscribing to the service. There is, however, a registration option for convenience. If you want to create a watch list to track stock on various devices, registering for an account would be necessary to store your information.

If you decide to connect your brokerage account to Stockflare, you’ll probably want it to be password protected. Trading Ticket, the company that enables a connection between Stockflare and your brokerage account, has data encryption and security to give you peace of mind.

Although you can connect the tool with multiple U.S. brokerage accounts, Stockflare touts DriveWealth as its international brokerage partner. DriveWealth’s standard commission is $0.0125 per share with a minimum of $2.99. Fractional shares cost $0.99 per transaction that’s less than a share.

Pros & Cons

Pro: Stockflare is free. The undeniable benefit of this website is its completely free to use. According to the company facts page, the startup is still in its growth phase and not currently earning money from its technology.

Con: It’s not a site for investment advising. If you’re looking for personalized recommendations or a passive approach to investing, you won’t get that from Stockflare. The stock ratings do include Wall Street opinion on whether or not you should buy, but Stockflare is careful to mention this advice is subjective. Ultimately, it’s a resource that’s meant to supplement your decision-making. It’s not a site that will take the place of an actual adviser.

Pro: There’s a Stockflare app. If you want to review stocks on the go, you can download the app for use on multiple devices.

Con: Updates aren’t in real time. Time is an important factor when buying and selling stocks. Stockflare doesn’t currently offer real-time information. In the U.S., the data has a 15-minute delay.

Pro: The way data is presented. Stockflare gets high marks in how clean the interface is for analyzing stocks. The information is put together in an attractive way that’s user-friendly for investors of all experience levels.

Con: You can’t buy stock directly from Stockflare. Although the Stockflare dashboard is impressive visually, it’s a research tool that doesn’t offer investment services. You have to go the extra step of connecting a brokerage account to Stockflare to buy and sell stock.

Other Stock Analysis Tools to Consider

Stockflare is a research tool that combines key research metrics and flashy displays. You can also get similar information from an online broker that has a research center and investment news sources. For example:

Fidelity is a brokerage, so it’s not completely free for stock analysis. But there are valuable free-ish resources you can tap into without becoming a Fidelity client. Parts of the research center, including stock snapshots, stock screening, and stock comparison, are open to the public. You do need to be a Fidelity client to gain access to analyst opinions and to dig into stock ratings from independent researchers. Online trades with Fidelity cost $7.95 per trade, and you need to have an account minimum of $2,500.

TradeKing is an online broker that’s a little more affordable than Fidelity and has a sizable research feature. TradeKing allows you to create a watch list, review company snapshots, do technical analysis, do price forecasting, and more. You can get started with as little as $500, and the cost is $4.95 per trade.

Yahoo Finance has a great amount of information to dig into for stock research. At Yahoo Finance, you can review stats, company financials, history, analyst projections, and more. For a new investor, Stockflare does have a leg up on Yahoo Finance and comparable news outlets when it comes to attractive visuals and beginner-friendliness.

Additional resources and investor communities that may come in handy during your stock research are:

Ultimately, Stockflare can be used in partnership with these or any other resources to guide your trade decisions.

Who Will Benefit the Most from Stockflare

If you want to add another stock analysis tool to your toolbelt, Stockflare is worth a shot simply because there’s nothing to lose. Both new and experienced investors may find Stockflare worthwhile. The dashboard takes the difficulty out of organizing data on your own for analysis. Keep in mind, investing in stocks does present risks. Even if you put in the research, no one can predict with complete certainty what stocks will do in the future.

 

The post Stockflare Review: User-Friendly Tool to Analyze Stock Performance for Free appeared first on MagnifyMoney.

The Stock Market Is Iffy Right Now. What Can You Do With Your 401K?

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On a daily basis, the stock market seems to buzz around like a balloon you let go of before tying the end. Equity fund prices are all over the place. The concerns de jour are China, oil prices, interest rates and the possibility of a global recession. With so much going on, it’s no wonder that the market is acting like a drunken monkey. And it’s no wonder that many investors are confused and frightened.

If you are asking yourself how to invest your retirement money now, you aren’t alone. Everyone is asking the same question. But the good news is you don’t have to sit there and remain anxious. I can’t predict the future so I’m not going to try, but there are plenty of steps you can take to protect and grow your retirement money now. Here are five of them.

1. Compare Your Funds to the S&P 500

Good markets mask underperformance, but weak markets usually don’t. Compare the year-by-year performance of your funds to that of the S&P 500. I’m not talking about 3- and 5-year averages. I’m talking about year-by-year performance. You can easily find this information online or in the fund prospectus. Another approach is to simply look at a graph of your fund vs. the market. (You can learn more about how to do so here.)

When you do this exercise, you might see funds that should have been sold long ago. Even if your funds did well during good years in the past, how did they do during market downturns? For example, aggressive funds might earn more during strong periods, but they often lose more during downturns. If you are not comfortable with those losses, it might be time to switch. This is why it’s important to review the year-by-year performance and review these kinds of graphs.

2. Make Sure You Have the Right Asset Allocation

Are you taking too much risk? Do you have too much money in the stock market? Should you shift some assets into fixed income? Even if you have great equity funds, if your allocation is too aggressive, you might get blown out of the water when things get rocky. According to a recent study by Dalbar, the average investor underperformed the market by up to 7 percentage points in 2008 due in big part to their emotions. On $100,000, that’s a potential loss of $7,000 per year. As you can see, our emotions can be extremely expensive.

One great way to keep your emotions in check is to have the right asset allocation. This simply means reconsidering the mix you have between equity and fixed income. By moving more money into fixed income and out of equity funds, you might be able to mute losses during downturns while still allowing the portfolio to grow over time.

How do you know how much risk you should take or what kind of mix works for you? There are a number of free tools to objectively measure the risk you are comfortable with and compare it to the risk you are actually taking in your portfolio. Take the time to understand your risk tolerance and then make sure you know how much risk you are actually taking. If there is a mismatch, realign your investments.

3. Review Your Process for Picking Investments

By far the most important predictor of your investment success is the process by which you buy and sell holdings in your retirement account. Some people like the “set it and forget it” approach to investing. I know this is easy to do and it saves time, but it can be very expensive as well.

The buy and hold might work if you buy index funds, but even then, you have to be mindful. Indexes come in and out of favor all the time. Take a look at how markets around the world are doing and adjust your portfolios to lighten (or eliminate) your holdings in distressed areas while perhaps putting a heavier emphasis on those areas that are performing well.

Whatever process you use to pick investments, make sure you evaluate your fund’s performance at least each year.

4. Remember Your Timeframe

When the market is soft and you see a lot of red ink on your investment statements month after month, it’s difficult to remain sanguine. But if you shift your thinking and consider your ultimate investment timeframe, it just might be easier to relax.

When most people plan their retirement, they consider the end date of the plan as the day they retire. I understand this, but I think it’s a little short-sighted.

According to the Social Security Administration, if you are 45 years old today, you can expect to live about 40 more years. This means that if you are 45 years old today, you should plan your investments with a 40-year timespan – not just until you retire.

That being the case, it doesn’t matter what your account values are today, this week, this year or next year. What matters is how to grow your money safely until you retire and how to invest that money once you do retire to create the most income in a safe way for the rest of your life.

5. Accept Imperfection

Stock market prices reflect conviction (or the lack thereof) in the economy. Right now there are both strong positives and serious weaknesses in our system. Over the short-run, the market could go either way. Nobody knows which “story” will win the hearts and minds of investors. And, as I said above, the future is unknowable – despite what some pundits say.

People who expect to call every market turn right often end up going broke. That’s because they jump in and out of investments at the instant the market turns against them. As a result, these people never give the market a chance to work its magic.

As you’ve seen, there are plenty of steps you can take to make sure you have the right investments and the right investment approach.

If you’ve taken the steps I’ve suggested above and are confident in the funds you hold and the process by which you make your decisions, your best step might be to do nothing right now and accept the fact that sometimes account values drop. It’s true and unavoidable. But you should accept that only after you’ve done everything you can to make sure you hold the right investments.

You might feel like current market volatility is a threat but it’s actually an amazing opportunity. When the market is strong, few people take the time to evaluate whether or not their retirement money is invested wisely or not. Now that the market has got your attention, take advantage of it.

[Editor’s Note: You can monitor your other financial goals (like building good credit) for free on Credit.com.]

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