How Much Student Loan Debt Is Too Much? Here’s a Formula to Figure it Out

Much has been made of the student loan problem. While you’d be hard pressed to find disagreement that it’s an issue, there is plenty of disagreement about how bad things really are. On the one hand, it’s easy to find stories chronicling massive default rates (12%), oppressive $800-a-month loan payments and the big one: total outstanding student loan debt now dwarfs total credit card debt.

On the other hand, many folks argue persuasively that the problem is not as bad as one might think. A 2014 study by Goldman Sachs, for example, found that former students with $30,000 in debt (about average at the time) were no less likely to buy a home than their debt-free peers. Students with an average college debt load who select 20-year repayment terms end up with monthly payments that are just shy of $300 — a significant amount, surely, but roughly the same as a car payment. Isn’t college worth that?

Student loan expert Mark Kantrowitz added both science and sanity to this debate recently with publication of a paper titled “Who Graduates with Excessive Student Loan Debt?” In it, he makes the case for a reasonable formula to asses just how much student loan debt is too much. He then goes on to untangle the available research showing the real-life consequences faced by those with too much debt — and in fact, all Americans, because consequences like “delayed household formation” impact everyone.

First, the math.

There’s no arguing that student loan debt has ballooned — overtaking total credit card debt in 2010, total auto loans in 2011, and topping $1 trillion in 2012. Only total mortgage debt is bigger now. To put a finer point on it, some more dramatic numbers: Only 46% of college graduates left school with debt in 1993, and it averaged $9,320. Last year, 71% left school with an average of $35,051 in debt.

Connecting Increased Income Potential With Debt

But how much debt is too much? After all, $35,000 could be a huge mountain for a kindergarten teacher earning $25,000 annually; but to a Wall Street trader earning a six-figure salary, that $300 monthly payment sounds like beer money. So it’s important to connect increased income potential with debt to really calculate what is “too much debt.” Here’s how Kantrowitz, publisher and VP of Strategy at Cappex.com, figures it:

Half the income increase attributed to a college degree should be enough to repay the student loan within 10 years. If half the extra income coming in doesn’t pay off the loan in 10 years, the student probably overpaid.

Using data from 2013, Kantrowitz shows that college graduates ages 25-34 earn a median of $18,530 more annually than their peers who didn’t graduate from college. After taxes, that yields $10,655 per year, and half of that is a touch over $5,000, or a little more than 10% of income available to repay student loans.  

Here’s How the Formula Works

As one example, Kantrowitz cites the average starting salary of a former student with a humanities degree at $45,000, compared to $30,000 for a high school graduate. After taxes, that works out to a $9,000 annual “college degree” bonus. Half of that is $4,500, which is 10% of income, and enough to service an average $35,000 debt over 10 years.  

An even simpler rule of thumb Kantrowitz uses argues that students should not take out student loans that exceed their expected first-year salary — so if you think you’ll earn $40,000 as an entry-level accountant, that should be the upper limit of borrowing. That corresponds roughly to paying off the loan with 10% of income over 10 years, arriving at the same places as the calculation above.

Not a bad deal. But how many students end up on wrong side of that math? About one in four borrowers.

By this measure, Kantrowitz calculates that 27.2% of students graduating with debt have too much debt, and can’t repay their loans using the 10%-for-10-years model. In addition, women are more likely to graduate with excessive debt than men (29.1% to 24.3%), “mostly due to women earning lower income than men after graduate,” Kantrowitz says.

Meanwhile, the “too much debt” line is also partly dependent on major. Students majoring in theology (64.7%), law and legal studies (43.1%), communications (36.2%), agriculture (34.1%), education (33.9%), humanities (33.5%) and design (33.1%) are more likely to graduate with excessive debt. On the other side, engineering (16.3%) and computer science (23.8%) students are on the right side of the debt line.

The Consequences of Too Much Student Loan Debt

What does all that mean to the graduates? And to society? There are dramatic, and specific consequences to leaving school with too much debt. Here are the highlights from Kantrowitz’s paper, which references a Department of Education longitudinal study of college graduates.  

Those with too much college debt were more likely to:

  • Delay buying a home (49.8% vs. 38.1% of those without excessive debt)  
  • Delay getting married (27.1% vs. 20.9%)
  • Delay having children (36.4% vs. 27.9%)
  • Take a job instead of enrolling in further postsecondary education (43.3% vs. 33.0%)
  • Take a job outside of field (50.8% vs. 36.4%)
  • Work more than desired (47.8% vs. 36.4%)
  • Work more than one job (33.0% vs. 23.4%)

In short, debt prevents college graduates from following their dreams, from working in their field of study (making college a bit of a waste), makes them more likely to delay starting a family, and makes them more likely to work a second job.

Other research shows indebted young people are less likely to create startup companies or engage in entrepreneurship. Of course. It’s hard to fund a start-up when you are still paying for college.

Perhaps you went to college back when tuition could be earned with a few months’ summer work, and don’t feel the need to worry about student debt right now. That’s misguided.  Wrap all those negative consequences together and you get what sociologists call “delayed household formation.” This has serious consequences for overall economic activity. From the obvious: if young people in their 20s aren’t buying starter homes, families in their 30s and 40s have trouble selling starter homes and trading up; To the less obvious: Young people who live in their parents’ homes aren’t buying couches and rugs, let alone toilet bowl brushes and coffee makers.

These impacts can be seen across the economy. For example, furniture analyst firm firm ABTV warned about in a report last year.

“It’s a sticky wicket: Baby Boomers are downsizing to smaller spaces, new home sales are increasing gradually, but mortgage reforms have made it difficult for younger homeowners to qualify, given the debt loads many are carrying from student loans,” the report said.

Discussions of student loan debt often descend into loud arguments over whether young people are spoiled and why they don’t deserve “free college,” a debate that’s become even more raucous thanks in part to presidential candidate Bernie Sanders campaign platform. Plenty of other proposals, by candidates in both parties, have sought to ease the student loan debt burden on young people, an obviously popular topic with millennials.

Whatever your views of free college or debt relief, it’s undeniable that reforms are needed. They begin with making sure college is a good value for former students. A degree that requires more than 10 years to repay is not only a bad deal for them, it’s a bad deal for everyone.

If you want to see how your student loans may be impacting your credit, you can get a free copy of your credit reports from each of the major credit bureaus annually. Also, you can look at your free credit scores, updated monthly on Credit.com, which will also show you major credit scoring factors like payment history.

If you’re already behind on payments, there are some options available to help you get back on track, even if forgiveness isn’t an option. To get out of default, you can combine eligible loans with a federal Direct Consolidation Loan, or you can go through the government’s default rehabilitation program. If you make nine consecutive on-time payments (the payments can be extremely low), your account goes back into good standing, and the default is removed from your credit report.

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Are You Paying Off Your Debt Wrong?

paying off your debt wrong

It’s happened. You’ve pinched all your pennies, paid off all your bills and — finally! — ended up with enough money to make an extra loan payment this month. But when you queue up the online account, you’re hit with an unexpected question: do you want to make a prepayment toward your next monthly bill or pay off some of your principal?

What’s the Difference?

Prepayment options generally apply to installment loans, like an auto loan or mortgage, where you make a set payment at a specific interest rate over a specified period of time. They don’t really come into play when you’re dealing with revolving debt like a credit card, where interest gets recalculated each month and your best bet is to pay down any balances as soon as possible.

When you elect to pay ahead, you’re allocating the funds toward future monthly payments. Accelerating your monthly payments could reduce the amount of time it takes you to pay off your loan, so long as you don’t skip future payments, Thomas Nitzsche, media relations manager for ClearPoint Credit Counseling Solutions, said over email, but depending on the terms of your loan, it may not reduce the amount of interest you pay.

Paying down your principal (the amount that is left on your loan plus any interest), on the other hand, reduces the amount of time it’ll take you to pay off the loan and the amount of interest being charged, but you’ll still be required to make next month’s payment.

“Your [monthly] payment will never change making an extra principal payment,” Scott Sheldon, a senior loan officer at Sonoma County Mortgages and a Credit.com contributor, said.

Deciding What to Do

Making a prepayment can be the right move if your income isn’t stable. For instance, it could help freelancers or contractors “because it can allow them to absorb lean times in their budget by ‘skipping’ future payment if/when necessary,” Nitzsche said over email.

In most other scenarios, paying down your principal is likely the best way to go.

“In general, if the consumer has the ability to pay more on a loan, is a [salaried] employee, has sufficient emergency savings and is accomplishing other long-term goals such as retirement/college savings, we would recommend they make extra principal payments towards the loan, assuming it doesn’t have any prepayment penalties,” Nitzsche said. “This allows them to reduce the amount of interest paid, the duration of the term and to move on to other goals sooner.”

Of course, you’ll have to carefully review the terms and conditions of your mortgage to be sure what option is right for you. You’ll want to be aware of any fees associated with paying your mortgage off early. And when it comes to making an extra payment, you’ll need to check if your servicer imposes any contractual or technological restrictions regarding either option.

For instance, “some lenders default to using extra payment to pay future interest rather than principal and require you to call each month to direct the payment to principal instead,” Nitzche said. “Others only allow you to pre-pay a certain number of months ahead.”

Consider All Your Options

Remember, you don’t have to put that extra money toward your loan. And, in fact, there are certain situations where you probably shouldn’t — like, say, if your savings account is running on empty, your retirement funds are virtually non-existent or you’re hoping for a hefty tax deduction from your mortgage interest.

Refinancing could be another way to save on the interest you’re paying on your home. (Just be sure to check your credit before you shop around since a good credit score generally entitles you to the best terms and conditions. You can check your credit scores for free each month on Credit.com.)

There are also other alternatives consider. For instance, if your main concern is missing a mortgage payment, you can open up a checking account specifically for them and set up automatic monthly payments to come from it, mortgage pro Sheldon said.

Or “open a savings account,” says Jorie Johnson, a certified financial planner based in Brielle, N.J. “Put [any extra money] in there and when the amount … equals the principal owed, mail it in and pay down the entire balance of the loan.”

This plan could ultimately accomplish what you initially set out to do — getting that pesky loan off the books earlier and cheaper than expected — but also provide you a certain amount of flexibility, should your financial situation abruptly change, Johnson said.

“If you have an emergency, you have access to that money,” she said. “Hold on to your money and make it work for you.”

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The Government Can Take Your Social Security to Pay Student Loans, But Maybe Not for Long

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Failing to repay your federal student loans can have serious consequences, from a damaged credit rating and debt collection to lost tax refunds and wage garnishment. The government can also garnish your Social Security benefits, though legislators introduced a Senate bill aimed at ending this penalty on Thursday.

Unveiled by a group of Democratic senators, the Protection of Social Security Benefits Restoration Act would repeal a 1996 law that allows the Uncle Sam to garnish earned benefits in order to clear out federal debts. That’s a good thing, because in 2002 and 2013, Social Security garnishment increased by 400% — from about 31,000 to 155,000 people — according to a report from the Government Accountability Office cited in the bill’s summary. And in that time, the number of people aged 65 and older whose Social Security was garnished increased from nearly 6,000 to 36,000 — a 500% increase.

One would have to forgo student loan payments for a long time to get to this point, as federal student loan default occurs after 270 days, or nine months. However, that doesn’t mean wages are garnished indefinitely. You can get out of default by going through the federal student loan default rehabilitation program or consolidating student loans.

Whether you’ve missed one or nine payments, stop running from your student loan debt. Contact your loan servicer to ask about options and make a plan to get out of debt. Student loan debts are rarely discharged in bankruptcy, so you’ll have to deal with them sooner or later, lest you want to face a future of lost earnings.

Even if the Democrats’ bill becomes law and makes social security benefits untouchable, student loan default can wreck your financial health, especially your credit scores. You can see how student loans are impacting your credit with your free credit report summary on Credit.com.

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