A New Credit Scoring Model Is On the Way: Here’s What to Expect

VantageScore is rolling out a new version of its credit score model this fall.

A new credit scoring model — expected to roll out in fall 2017 — aims to more accurately measure credit risk by using more historical data and machine-learning techniques while culling less reliable information.

On Monday, VantageScore Solutions announced the release of the fourth version of its credit scoring model, to be used by the three national credit bureaus. (It may seem like these credit scoring models don’t change much, but they do update from time to time. You can find out 13 ways credit scores have changed in the past 20 years here.)

VantageScore 4.0 improves on its predecessor in three main ways, said Sarah Davies, senior vice president of product management and analytics for VantageScore. First, it looks at a consumer’s credit behavior over time, incorporating more of what’s known as “trended data.”

For example, the score takes into account how a consumer’s credit balance has changed over a period of months, rather than taking a single snapshot in time. This has made the score upwards of 20% more predictive than 3.0 for customers with good credit, Davies said.

The new model also excludes a lot of public record information, especially liens and judgments. In many cases, Davies said, this information was difficult to accurately link to individual consumers.

“In all likelihood, almost all civil judgments will be removed from credit files and a substantial portion of tax liens will be removed from credit files,” Davies said.

With this new model, medical collections won’t be reported on credit files until after six months have passed. That’s because there is often confusion as to whether the consumer or insurer is responsible for the payment, Davies said.

The third big update is the use of machine-learning techniques to help score consumers with thin credit files. VantageScore used large data-processing platforms to examine thousands and thousands of combinations of consumer behaviors to identify which ones were associated with people paying their bills on time.

Despite the high-tech method, this led to some intuitive conclusions, Davies said. For example, for consumers with big collections accounts, VantageScore was able to parse out that those who are looking for credit are higher risks than those who aren’t.

It seems obvious, but a human may not have identified this as a risk factor. Davies said the technique has made VantageScore 4.0 about 17% more predictive than its predecessor for people who haven’t used credit in the last six months and 30% more predictive for people who don’t have activity on any accounts, just collections.

What Leads to a Good Score?

VantageScore still rewards the same behavior as any other credit scoring model, Davies said. The model uses the same 300-to-850 scoring range familiar to many people. (You can find out more about what a good credit score consists of here.)

“You’ve still got to pay your bills on time,” she said. “You should still keep your credit card balances low. What this is going to do is look more thoroughly and holistically at some of the other pieces of data.”

VantageScore, which launched in 2006, claims to be able to assign scores to more than 30 million people than traditional models, like the widely used FICO score. The 4.0 version, however, will likely score about 500,000 fewer people than its predecessor because of the removal of many civil judgments and tax liens from credit files.

The removals are part of expected changes coming to credit reports as part of the National Consumer Assistance Plan, an effort by the three major credit reporting agencies expected to boost scores for many people. The agencies agreed to the plan in order to settle an investigation by 31 state attorneys general in 2015.

VantageScore vs. FICO

While Davies didn’t have numbers on how often VantageScore is used compared to FICO, she said VantageScore is increasingly popular. Version 3.0 was used 8 billion times in 2016, she said, up from 6 billion the prior year. (You can see your VantageScore 3.0 for free on Credit.com.)

More than 2,000 financial institutions use VantageScore and most credit issuers, she said. The fourth version of VantageScore has shown improvements in predicting mortgage risk, and Davies said the company hopes the new score will help them break into the mortgage market.

Davies said it would be naive to think that VantageScore could end the dominance of FICO, but the goal is to improve the scoring marketplace overall.

“The ideal world would be that we have meaningful market share, but that, more than anything, we’re an organization that’s about pushing all scoring organizations to deliver better products,” she said.

Image: NKS_Imagery

The post A New Credit Scoring Model Is On the Way: Here’s What to Expect appeared first on Credit.com.

What Everyone Should Know About the New VantageScore 4.0 Credit Score

View Your Free FICO Score for all 3 Credit Bureaus

In the world of consumer credit reporting and credit scoring moves at glacial speed. Every few years credit scoring systems are rebuilt or, more formally, redeveloped.  But, it’s rare that the newer versions of credit scoring systems are meaningfully different than their predecessors.

However, today VantageScore Solutions announced the release of the 4th generation of their VantageScore credit score which will become available from the three credit reporting agencies in the Fall of 2017, and it’s a game changer.

What is the VantageScore Credit Score

VantageScore Solutions was created by the three credit reporting agencies in 2006. The VantageScore credit score is a tri-bureau credit scoring model, meaning it is available for purchase and use from all three of the credit reporting agencies. The score is scaled 300 to 850, and the higher the score the better you look to lenders. According to VantageScore some 8 billion of their scores were used during the 12-month period between July 2015 and June 2016.

How is VantageScore 4.0 Different Than Prior Versions

VantageScore 4.0 is the only credit scoring system that considers your “trended” credit data.

What trended data says about the consumer is whether they’re paying their credit card balances in full each month, or if they’re just paying a small amount and revolving some or most of the balances to the next month. In the older form of credit reporting, prior to trended data, there was no way to distinguish between someone who paid in full each month from someone who paid a small amount and rolled the remaining unpaid balance to the next month.

Several years ago the credit reporting agencies began maintaining and reporting the historical balances and payments made on your credit card accounts. So rather than just reporting what your balance was last month, all three credit bureaus now report the historical balances and the amount you paid going back 24 months. This information is being called “Trended Data.”  You can see your trended data by looking at your credit reports via www.annualcreditreport.com.

Why does trending data matter?

In short, people who do not pay their cards in full each month are riskier than people who do pay them off in full each month.

That’s not anecdotal. TransUnion performed an analysis comparing the risk between transactors and revolvers and the results were staggering. People who do NOT pay their cards off in full each month are 3 to 5 times riskier than people who do pay in full each month. But until VantageScore 4.0, there was no difference in credit scores for someone pays in full each month versus not doing so. That’s why this is a big deal for lenders…it’s a materially better scoring model.

When Will Lenders Start Using the New Score?

This is the million dollar question…when? Converting to a new credit score is expensive and time consuming, and not mandatory.  Because of that, the industry tends to take a very long time fully adopting new scoring systems. Even FICO 9, the most current version of FICO’s credit score, doesn’t have a critical mass of users and it has been commercially available since late 2014. But, the features of VantageScore 4.0 are very compelling so it’s reasonable to expect lenders to be very interested as soon as the model goes live at the credit bureaus.

Having said that, VantageScore has partnerships with a variety of websites, like Credit Karma and Credit Sesame, that give their scores away to the sites’ registered users. Converting to newer score version is much easier for these websites because they don’t have the same barriers that lenders have. VantageScore 4.0 will likely be live and available from one or more of these websites not long after it goes live in the Fall of 2017.

What does this mean for you?

  1. It will become more important to pay your bill in full each month.

For you, this new model underscores the importance of paying your card in full each month. The average interest rate on a credit card is about 16% so it’s expensive to revolve balances. Notwithstanding the fact that you’re paying interest on the unpaid balance, now by not paying your balance in full your VantageScore 4.0 score is likely to be lower because you’re a riskier consumer. Conversely, those of you who do make it a practice to pay your cards in full each month, your VantageScore 4.0 score is likely to be higher because you’re a less risky consumer…and you’re not paying interest.

  1. Liens and judgments won’t hurt your score quite as much.

On or about July 1, 2017 the credit reporting agencies will remove most of the judgments and about ½ of the tax liens from credit reports. VantageScore 4.0 has been engineered to be less reliant on liens and judgments because, not surprisingly, there will be considerably fewer incidents where those public records find their way to credit reports. This isn’t really a big deal for consumers but it is a very big deal for lenders that will rely on the new score.

  1. Medical collections less than six months old won’t hurt your score at all.

Further, VantageScore 4.0 will ignore medical collections that are less than six months old, as in they won’t hurt your score at all. And the credit bureaus, as part of the NCAP, will remove medical collections that are paid or are being paid by an insurance company. The hypothesis, which makes perfect sense, is to avoid any unfair score impact caused by the inefficient insurance claim process. And for those medical collections that are older than six months and are not paid by insurance, which will remain on credit reports, VantageScore 4.0 will discount them so they don’t have as much of a negative impact as non-medical collections.

The Bottom Line: The VantageScore 4.0 is better for consumers and better for lenders.

The changes that were made benefit consumers who pay their cards off each month, and/or have medical collections. The changes benefit lenders because the score is considerably more powerful because of the consideration of the trended data information. It’s rare that a new scoring system is a true win-win for consumers and lenders…and VantageScore 4.0 is just that.

The post What Everyone Should Know About the New VantageScore 4.0 Credit Score appeared first on MagnifyMoney.

My Free Credit Scores Are All Different. What Gives?

credit-scores-different-types

There are lots of places that offer free credit scores nowadays, but not every score is the same. Even when you pull your free credit scores, chances are the scores will be different.

Why is that?

Free credit scores can differ because of the scoring model used, the credit bureau supplying the data and how frequently that information is reported to places offering free credit scores.

“They don’t always pull the same accounts,” explains Brette Sember, author of “The Complete Credit Repair Kit.” “There may be some information missing which can affect a score, too.” Also, “they don’t monitor your information in real time,” she says. “They only actually check periodically, so it depends on who checked what, when.”

Here are three reasons your free credit scores may not look alike.

1. Scoring Models Differ

There are two major credit scoring models — FICO and VantageScore — and credit sites and card issuers tend to offer one or the other. While the latest versions of FICO and VantageScore have the same scoring range — from 300 to 850 — each weighs the factors comprising those scores differently. For instance, VantageScore says its scoring system benefits those with a thin credit file. (You can learn more about VantageScore here.)

One of the most common credit score misconceptions is that you have only one score, when in reality you have several dozen credit scores. Consumers, in fact, have multiple FICO scores, which can vary based on the credit bureau supplying the data.

2. Lenders Tweak Formulas

Many financial institutions make adjustments to scoring formulas so they are more specific to their credit business. For example, an auto lender might weigh one’s auto payment history more heavily.

3. Timing Matters

As Sember notes, the score you receive may depend on how often your credit information is calculated and when the scores are updated. Your free credit score might not reflect your new home mortgage or paid-off credit card debt. Or that new credit card with a higher credit limit — which reduced your credit utilization ratio, or how much debt you carry on all your credit card(s) versus their total available limits — may not be showing up yet.

So what’s a person to do?

Think of it this way: The scores are all accurate depending on the scoring model and when it was last updated. But things change, and credit is fluid. Free credit scores are best used as more of a guide than a precise figure. The point is to track your credit score to make sure it’s moving in the right direction by always paying your bills on time and in full. (You can get two of your credit scores, updated each month, for free on Credit.com.)

“There are hundreds of credit scores, and they are for educational purposes,” says credit coach and Credit.com contributor Jeanne Kelly. “Each of these varies on how the credit score is calculated.”

She adds, “My rule is, if you always just focus on your credit report and make sure you try to maintain healthy credit, then no matter what score is used, it will be a good one.”

More on Credit Reports & Credit Scores:

Image: Courtney Keating

The post My Free Credit Scores Are All Different. What Gives? appeared first on Credit.com.